One question many people ask themselves when they are trying to handicap horse races is, "How important are bullet works?" For those who may not know what bullet works are, here is a brief description...
Bullet works are workouts that earn a bullet (denoted by a dark bold bullet in the racing program) for being the fastest workout at that track on that day for that distance. For instance, when the horses workout (exercise) in the morning, some horses will work three furlongs (3/8's of a mile) while others will work four furlongs, five furlongs, or even farther.
There are clockers who time the horses and report the times to the company that prepares the racing programs. The works are noted for each horse as well as how many horses worked on that particular day. A horse that works the fastest at the distance is awarded a bullet, a bold mark in front of the workout time listed beneath the runner in the program. So if a horse, let's call it "Speedy Worker," earned a bullet for a workout on the 4th of July at Saratoga, it would have it listed beneath its lines in the program as, . 3F ft :36H 1/40
That would mean that Speedy Worker ran 3 furlongs on a fast track in 36 seconds and it was the fastest workout of the day. It would also indicate that 40 horses worked at that distance that day.
While you may not know the quality of the other horses, it is impressive that of 40 horses, Speedy Worker had the fastest time. Obviously, the more horses who worked out, the more impressive is Speedy Worker's accomplishment.
A bullet work by itself is not enough to indicate a good wagering opportunity. There are many other factors that should be considered, but it is a place to start and should be considered a red flag when handicapping a horse race.
The next thing to consider is if Speedy Worker is a "morning glory." A morning glory is a horse that turns in exceptional workout times in the morning, but then performs poorly in the afternoon. It is named after the flowers that bloom early in the day but fade in the afternoon. If Speedy Worker is a morning glory then the bullet work means that Speedy Worker is jut up to his or her old tricks and should not be considered for a wager.
However, if SW doesn't appear to be a morning glory then some further investigation is warranted. A look at equipment changes and other factors may show that something has been done to help SW to improve and that may mean a wager is indicated if the odds are right. Your job, as a handicapper is to try to determine what is going on with SW and to determine if SW is going to race faster than in his or her previous race. In other words, is there an improvement of form?
Developing a systematic approach to evaluating works and the implications of a bullet work can point you to many fine winners and take some of the mystery out of picking winners.
About the Author
Learn how an insider handicaps horse races by visiting Bill's website at http://williewins.homestead.com (Horse Racing Handicapping with Willie's). To see the systems Bill uses, go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore2.html (Bill's Handicapping Store) Bill Peterson has been in horse racing for 50 years. "Horse Racing is in my blood."
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