The 2008 season has had an unexpected start for 2 teams playing this coming weekend: the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Buffalo Bills.
The Bills, of course, trounced the Seahawks in their opener at home in what the betting public viewed as toss-up versus the spread going into the game.
Jacksonville, on the other hand, proved to be a major disappointment in their first game, falling to the Titans 17-10 despite being a 3 point favourite on the road.
So, will the football universe right itself in Week 2? Will the Jaguars regain their playoff form from 2007 and reveal the Bills to be an early-season pretender in the battle for the suddenly wide-open AFC-East crown? Not so fast I say, there are a number of trends at play in this game that seems to favour a continuation of what we saw in Week 1.
Reason #1
This trend is as basic as they come, but, it's a fact: teams coming off a big SU win (of > 21 points) in Week 1 are a dynamite 22-12 ATS in Week 2 and were 2-1 ATS in 2007. When a team starts the season on a roll, their momentum usually continues, at least thru Week 2 anyway.
Reason #2
The 2nd reason the Bills look pretty good this week arises from a situation favouring teams coming off a bad-to-mediocre season, that also put up some decent rushing numbers in Week 1 or Week 2 of the following campaign.
It's logic goes like this: Since 1994, Road Favs (or Road Dogs of < 10 Points) playing in Week 2 or 3, that had a SU WP <= .500 in the previous season, AND rushed for > 100 yards in their previous game, are a blistering 68-20 ATS versus the number.
It's seems pretty clear that teams in this situation have made some obvious improvements, but, are undoubtedly still being undervalued by a sceptical betting public placing too much stock in their performance from last season.
Reason #3
I touched on rushing yardage above and here is another trend that also relies heavily on how well a team is currently running the ball.
Here are the details:
Teams with a Big-Rush% For (BRY%F) > 50% and a Play Book Execution Penalty Against (PBEPA) Average <= 1.0, that also have a Successful Rushing Play% (SRP%F) at least 2.5 points higher than their opponents, are a whopping 127-59 ATS since 2001 and were 32-11 ATS in 2006 alone.
Currently, Buffalo has a BRY%F of 50.5%, meaning, over half of their rushing yardage last week came from runs of 10+ yards, while their PBEPA is currently 0.0 and their SRP%F is an excellent 42.9%, compared with Jacksonville's SRP%F of 37.5%.
All this adds up to further trouble for the Jags in Week 2, or, at least a closely fought match coming down to a last-minute field-goal decision in which the Bills will prevail ATS, either way.
Now, seeing as this is a '3 Reasons' article, I will refrain from describing yet another trend working in Buffalo's favour this week, but, by clicking on the link below, you can read about this extra situation on Page 6 of the Game Sheets package for this match.
Buffalo's Confidence percentage this week to cover is: 63%
Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars (-6)
About the Author
Dennis Arthur, a self-professed statistics junkie and American Football fanatic, has been providing innovative NFL analysis based against the Vegas point spread since 1999. For more wagering orientated articles like this one along with specialized team ratings and winning selections versus the spread, visit his site at http://www.armchairanalysis.com.
No comments:
Post a Comment