You can play favorites at the horse track until the cows come home and nickel and dime a small profit, but if you want to make big money horse racing handicapping you need a good system for picking winning longshot bets that pay. Obviously, playing all the long priced horses is a losing proposition, but there are some horses that go off at big odds and win.
Learning how to separate the good bets from the bad ones is how professional handicappers make a living. There are no guarantees in life and especially not in picking good opportunities, but if you use a system you are more likely to minimize losses and maximize profits. Whether you are investing in the stock market, currency markets or betting on races, one thing is certain, if you go along with the crowd you will be a loser.
So what system do pro gamblers use to make a living? Going against the crowd is a start, but it takes more than just betting against favorites, because in horse racing, the favorites win almost a third of the time. Your job, if you want to show a profit, is to figure out which ones are legitimate favorites and which ones are phonies. There is a way to do that and it is really not very hard. I'll give an actual example to back up what I am saying and after that, why don't you start looking through some of those old programs you should be keeping for reference to see if you can find other such cases?
If you are betting on a horse, doesn't it make sense to know whether or not the horse can actually do what you are asking it to do? In other words, if you are expecting a horse to win an event at Churchill Downs on the natural dirt track, wouldn't it be nice to bet on the only horse in the race who has actually won such a race? How about 24-1 odds, does that make it sound even better? Does it sound crazy to you that the only horse in a race who actually won at that track and on that surface was going off at 24-1? It really happened on 6-18-2008 in the third race.
The #4 Alluring Adversary was the only horse in the six horse field who had won on the Churchill Downs dirt track and yet it went off at 24-1. Two poor performances over a sloppy track hid the horse's form that really wasn't that bad if you looked three races back where it showed a second place finish after leading most of the race against a field of 10 horses. My payoff was $52.40. The #1 Rose Is A Rage was the favorite at 8-5 despite never having won at Churchill.
So what is the best system for picking long shot bets? Start by finding a false favorite like the #1 horse in that race who had never won at Churchill Downs and then find another horse at much longer odds who has done what you want your horse to do and you will be ahead of 99% of the other horseplayers.
About the Author
Learn how an insider handicaps horse races by visiting Bill's website at http://williewins.homestead.com (Horse Racing Handicapping with Willie's). To see the systems Bill uses, go to http://williewins.homestead.com/handicappingstore2.html (Bill's Handicapping Store) Bill Peterson has been in horse racing for 50 years. "Horse Racing is in my blood."
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